Wall Street Realism: Why Citigroup Slashed Its Bitcoin and Ethereum Targets

Citigroup (Citi) announced major downward revisions to its 12-month price targets for both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).

This represents the second time Citi has moved its target goalposts lower. Earlier in the year, the bank had already trimmed its expectations, but the latest adjustments reflect a deeper, structural shift in how Wall Street is pricing cryptocurrencies amidst an ongoing capital exodus and political gridlock.

The New Revisions: Base Case vs. Bear Case

According to reports from Reuters and internal banking data, Citigroup’s updated models have significantly lowered expectations for the two leading digital assets:

Bitcoin (BTC)

• Previous Target: $112,000 (Down from an initial $143,000 forecast)
• New 12-Month Target: $82,000
• Pessimistic (Bear Case) Scenario: $53,000

Ethereum (ETH)

• Previous Target: $3,175 (Down from an initial $4,304 forecast)
• New 12-Month Target: $2,240
• Pessimistic (Bear Case) Scenario: $1,094

At the time of the announcement, Bitcoin was hovering near $58,800, roughly half of its historical all-time high of $126,223 achieved in October 2025, while Ethereum languished at $1,585, its lowest level since April 2025. Both cryptocurrencies are trading below their long-term moving averages, firmly cementing a bearish market structure.

Three Core Catalysts Behind the Downgrade

Citi’s quantitative analysts, led by data tracked across institutional corridors, point to a combination of macroeconomic headwinds and institutional stagnation rather than a single market shock.

The Complete Reversal of ETF Demand

The most severe adjustment in Citi’s model is its outlook on spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Previously, the bank’s baseline forecast assumed a healthy $10 billion in net institutional inflows over the next 12 months. Citi has now slashed that assumption to exactly zero.

Data from SoSoValue confirms that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a staggering $4.5 billion in net outflows, marking their worst month since their historic January 2024 launch. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) alone accounted for $3.55 billion of that bleeding. Since the start of the year, net outflows have wiped out billions in equity, leaving a large portion of traditional ETF buyers underwater.

Stalled U.S. Legislation & The Washington Gridlock

A major pillar of Wall Street’s original bullish thesis was the expected passage of comprehensive U.S. digital asset legislation.

However, progress has ground to a halt. The Clarity Act, designed to map out exact jurisdictional boundaries between the SEC and CFTC and provide rules for stablecoin issuers, remains completely stalled in Congress. Without legal protections, institutional asset managers are choosing to keep their capital on the sidelines.

Strategic Capital Rotation and Corporate Treasury Risks

Citi highlighted a strong structural rotation away from digital assets and directly into Artificial Intelligence (AI) infrastructure and semiconductor equities. Speculative technology capital that once flowed into crypto is being heavily cannibalized by the AI boom, as Coinidol.com reported previously.

Furthermore, Wall Street is growing increasingly anxious about corporate "digital asset treasury companies." Firms that accumulated massive reserves of Bitcoin over the last few years are now facing operational debt pressures under a "higher-for-longer" interest rate environment, creating a lingering threat of large-scale corporate liquidations.

Adoption is Shifting to Infrastructure

Despite the pessimistic price targets, Citi's broader perspective on blockchain technology remains highly active. While the bank sees speculative tokens heading for an extended cooling period, it notes that institutional development is shifting internally.

Through its own internal project, Citi Token Services, the banking giant is continuing to invest heavily in tokenized commercial bank deposits, digital asset custody, and multi-chain interoperability.

The overarching consensus from Wall Street is clear: while the era of easy retail hype and speculative ETF-driven rallies faces a steep macro correction, the transition toward enterprise-grade, compliant financial infrastructure is moving forward behind closed doors.

Disclaimer. The data provided is collected by the author and is not sponsored by any company or token developer. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell cryptocurrency and should not be viewed as an endorsement by Coinidol.com. Readers should do their research before investing in funds. Brought from CoinIdol.com.