Bitcoin Price Analysis, Target is $6,643 Confluence Detector

Bitcoin has gone on to trade in a tighter zone over the last few months with 30, 60 and 120-day instability forcing annual lows. Currently, the market cap is at US$195.022 billion, and for the past day, it has managed to trade US$11.986 billion.

The total number of daily BTC transactions has gradually risen since April this year and on average has been between 180,000 and 230,000 since the month of June. This crucial metric has significantly fallen for nearly all Cryptos over the past 12 months. VisaNet, a Visa payment network, manages an average of 150 million transactions daily and is in position to manage over 24,000 transactions per second.

Transaction Cost Reduction

Transaction costs have also significantly dropped, to an average of US$0.59 per transaction, that is almost a two year low. In December 2017, huge network volume caused transaction costs to meteoric levels. The decline in transaction cost is ascribed to; the fall in the BTC price, SegWit, the fall in total daily transactions, Transaction Batching, and also the application of the Lightning Network.

The Technical Confluence Indicator (TCI) indicates that BTC now ranging in a zone of $6300 to $6500. The region is the confluence of mid-ranking technical level like Simple Moving Average (SMA) 5-4h, the SMA 200-15m, the Fibonacci 61.8% one-day and others.

Bottom, the BTC/USD needs support at the US$6,421 level that is the confluence of the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day and also the 4h-low.

Top, the first target point is the US$6,602 level that is the Fibonacci 38.2% one-month and last week's peak. The greater target is the US$6,643 level which is the Fibonacci 161.8% one-day.

   

This important tool offers a particular amount of 'weight' to every indicator, and this 'weight' can affect all adjacent price levels. The weightings imply that one price level minus any other indicator but under the impact of two 'significantly weighted' levels acquire huge resistance more than their adjacent neighbors.

“Be Patient”, the Experts Say

Despite the price seeming to be sustainably low, many experts in the crypto community believe there will be a rally closer to the end of the year. 

Alex Reinhardt, Venture investor, business development expert, serial entrepreneur, Co-Founder and CEO of ELVN Crypto Messenger and Wallet, stated to Coinidol:

“I am 100% sure that Bitcoin will rally. There are several reasons for it and the main one is market expectations, for everybody is very optimistic. The players should be very careful and it is not a good idea to buy after the rate goes above $8,000. If you do, then buy before the end of September, after that be patient and wait for a rally.

There is sufficient economic rationale for the price to go up, but we realise that the cryptocurrencies market is only partially based on conventional laws of business. Due to asset consolidation in the hands of a few major players, the so-called ‘whales”, the market is greatly dependent on their sentiment, but I am sure the price will go up.”